BREXIT and Business Analysis in Government – Lessons learned?

First published on LinkedIn on June 27, 2016

The Situation
A. Uncertainty – Yes
B. Complexity – Yes
C. Risk – Yes
D. Options – Unclear!

Business Analysis plays a key role in supporting stakeholders to balance information against emotion and should have been used towards the dismantling of ‘project fear’ on either side of the BREXIT argument. Informed objectivity through rigorous analysis is critical in government  decision making because a democracy is only as effective as the people are informed. Therefore, providing robust analysis in a medium easily understood by the majority of people may have led to a certain number of positive outcomes.

1. Target State – it seemed clear from the debate that an understanding of the flaws inherent within the current state were fairly obvious, however, a detailed picture of the target state and an action plan to achieve it was not defined. This resulted in greater uncertainty. The post-BREXIT picture has continued to remain fuzzy at best.

2. Cost/Benefits Analysis – again if this was completed, it was not communicated effectively enough to the wider populace. An objective analysis may have negated the need for a referendum if it would have already been clear to everyone what the most advantageous decision should be. If for example, the overwhelming evidence pointed towards ‘Leave’ this would have saved the energy and resources committed towards arguing for ‘Remain’ and vice versa.

3. Options Analysis – where the pros and cons considered show only a marginal difference in viability, again this would have been communicated prior to the referendum so that all parties involved would understand that neither Leave nor Remain options presented a significantly improved outcome and perhaps allow room for further investigation. Perhaps allowing for the identification of a hybrid or previously unconsidered totally ‘outside the box’ solution. 

4. Gap Analysis – What Next? The BA’s job is not complete without providing an objective recommendation based on the facts of the analysis. The recommendation should include next steps to achieve or implement the detailed requirements identified in order to realise the desired benefits. This recommendation would serve as the bedrock for commencing a structured exit programme.

To conclude, I believe the textbook application of Business Analysis within all spheres of strategic decision making is fundamental, particularly within Government. For me, one key lesson of BREXIT therefore calls for raising the profile and awareness of Business Analysis even further so that it becomes a basic and fundamental approach to far reaching state policy.

At present we have a situation where those who “lost” the vote are extremely dissatisfied while others who “won” the vote are apparently changing camps due to the continuing uncertainty and apparently unforeseen impacts. This is characteristic of an emotional rather than a factually informed position because where projections of short to medium term scenarios are accurate, appropriate control measures are put in place and there is greater conviction to stay the chosen course.

Ultimately, efficiently conducted business analysis would support focused change management and ensure stakeholders are adequately informed of what the real requirements are. This will make it easier to continue to collaborate successfully regardless of the outcome of the vote. Perhaps I’m just being naive as politics is to analysis like a fox is to pigeons!